The Dallas Federal Reserve’s Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Keith Phillips said by their latest count, Austin’s Economy is growing at anaccelerated rate. The Metro’s Business Cycle Index holds at a strong 8.1{fbcf2a5c42fe71624047a18c73673849799bd5d53cdb5d8ca16f4833367ca63d} in June. That is just a shade lower than May’s 8.2{fbcf2a5c42fe71624047a18c73673849799bd5d53cdb5d8ca16f4833367ca63d} and Phillips explained the Austin economy is growing above trend as its long term cycle growth rate holds just above 6{fbcf2a5c42fe71624047a18c73673849799bd5d53cdb5d8ca16f4833367ca63d}. The Fed combines Job growth, Total Wages paid, retail sales and unemployment to come up with a Metro’s business cycle.
Austin’s economy has been accelerating this year, and by their latest numbers, the local economy’s job growth rate holds at 4.7{fbcf2a5c42fe71624047a18c73673849799bd5d53cdb5d8ca16f4833367ca63d}, despite a tight labor market. “Back in 2010 and ’11, you’d see a much faster job growth in Austin.” Phillips continued, “But the unemployment rate was higher and there was more labor to pull from.” Phillip’s said it wasn’t too long ago, Austin was reeling in new talent from across the country because the metro area had better job prospects. But nationwide things are not so bad anymore, and that stream of talent is slowing.
With a growing job growth rate and a still tight labor market, economists say that typically means a rise in the average hourly wage, but by the Dallas Fed’s count, the metro’s average hourly earnings has been sliding for the past few months and holds at $28.73. Phillips reasoned, many of the [job] sectors that have below average wages are growing faster.” Meaning even if those sectors are seeing wage gains, it pulls down the average. The Austin Round Rock Metro average hourly earning is still besting the State and national averages, which hold at $26.23 and $27.83 respectively.
(Photos:Dallas Federal Reserve)
